2011 Cubs

[Dan Michler]

Free agency going into full swing this week.  I like to put myself in the position of Cubs GM.  List of free agents.  http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/09/2011-mlb-free-agents.html

I assume the Cubs are going into next season with:

Soriano, Byrd, Colvin in the outfield. (Fukudome in reserve unless Colvin moves to 1B)

Ramirez, Castro, Dewitt/Barney/Baker on the infield with Soto/Hill behind the plate.

Rotation: Dempster, Zambrano, Silva, Gorzelanny, Wells with Marshall, Cashner, Marmol in the pen.

Not a ton of spots to fill coming into the year, especially with Ricketts' statment that he wants to keep the payroll flat, but I'd expect the Cubs to pickup a veteran 1B.  I'd also expect them to look at a right-handed setup man and possibly a starting pitcher.

The Cubs supposedly are interested in Brandon Webb, a former Cy Young caliber pitcher who now has Mark Prior syndrome.  This would only be worth the risk if the price is very low.  I expect Silva to get hurt at some point this year, so I'd like to see the Cubs go get a Padilla/Correja/Francis type at a bargain price instead of going for severely injury plagued guys like Webb, Harang, and Bonderman or overpaying for guys like Pavano and De La Rosa.

Might Kerry Wood come back to the Cubs as a setup man?  He was solid in the role for the Yanks last year and things ended on good terms with the Cubs last time.  I always loved Woody and would love to see him come back in this role.

That just leaves 1B.  I'm expecting a Jorge Cantu, Lyle Overbay, or Adam LaRoche type player for a 1 year deal, setting us up to make a bigger splash next winter.  Konerko or Pena would probably demand a longer term deal which would be stupid considering we just unloaded Lee and are still stuck underneath the Soriano, Fukudome, Ramirez, Milton Bradley, and Zambrano deals.  Adrian Gonzalez would have been sweet, but it looks like he's off to Boston.  Prince Fielder will be a free agent next year and I would think the Cubs might be interested in signing him next offseason when we get Silva and Fukudome's massive contracts off the books.

[Tom McManus]

Does the Jayson Werth contract surpass the A. Soriano contract as the worst in MLB history?

[pdga#7648]

not even close!

[CEValkyrie]

By far the worst contract in the MLB right now. 40 wins in 4 years.
Barry Zito, Giants, 2007
Seven years, $126 million.

[Tom McManus]

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. -- The Cubs are in agreement with first baseman Carlos Pena on a one-year contract, SI.com has learned.



Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/baseball/mlb/12/08/carlos.pena.cubs/index.html#ixzz17W3osET9

[Dan Michler]

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. -- The Cubs are in agreement with first baseman Carlos Pena on a one-year contract, SI.com has learned.

That is cool with me.  1 year and we are free to potentially go after Prince Fielder or somebody else next offseason.  I have heard alot of trade rumors involving Prince, but it sounds like his agent (Boras) is not interested in a sign and trade deal, which would mean Prince would still be on the market after next season regardless if he is traded.

Pena is a poor man's Adam Dunn.  He's more injury prone, strikes out a ton, is good for 30 HR, is a good fielding 1B, and takes alot of walks.  He hit .196 last year, but still had an OnBase% better than Ryan Theriot, which is more embarrassing for Theriot than it is good for Pena, but it makes the point that Pena does draw a lot of walks to help offset his embarrassingly low batting average and large number of K's.

Worst contract of all time?  I would agree with Brett that the Zito deal is worse than the Soriano deal.  Soriano still starts for the Cubs.  The Giants just won the World Series and did not use Zito in the playoffs.  That says everything.  Both are really bad though.  Can't judge the Werth deal until he's actually played some games, but it is certainly a strange looking deal.  The Angels gave Garry Matthews Jr. 5 yrs 50MM before the '07 season.  That was a bad one.  Darren Dreifort got 5 years 55MM from the Dodgers.  He started a total of 26 games in the 5 years and then retired.  Mike Hampton got 8 years, 121MM before the '01 season from the Rockies.  He ended up bouncing around to 4 different teams over the course of the deal and never really played after 2005.  I rate that as the worst baseball deal of all time.

[CEValkyrie]

This one year contract makes perfect sense so we can give Pujols a HUGE contract then he'll come to Chicago and absolutely suck the rest of his career  .

[pdga#7648]

Pujols has always said he wants to play on a team that has a chance to win Championships. Notice that's plural. He knows, as well as all Cubs fans, he wouldn't have a chance to win ANY in Chicago, unless it was with the White Sox!

He is where he will end his career at Brett. But I understand the wishful thinking    Ernie Banks was a looooooooong time ago. The best Cub ever!

And finally.... No matter where he plays, Pujols woulkd never suck. He is the best we will ever see, if not the best EVER!!

[pdga#7648]

But back to the original topic.
Get ready for another long disappointing year Dan. The Cubs will finish with less wins than they had this year. Probably 5th  again in that weak ass division.


Cardinals
Reds
Brewers
Astros
Cubs
Pirates

[Dan Michler]

Obviously I'm going to disagree with that opinion, but will wait until spring to make any predictions.

[philvb85]

I've been thinking about the Pena signing and I think I'm finally on board.  I view it more of a gamble considering the contract length.  I personally think we got a better deal with Pena than the Sox did with Dunn.

[Dan Michler]

I've been thinking about the Pena signing and I think I'm finally on board.  I view it more of a gamble considering the contract length.  I personally think we got a better deal with Pena than the Sox did with Dunn.

Not sure why so many fans are outraged by the deal.  I don't care about the $ value, its Tom Ricketts money, not mine.  There is no salary cap and the luxury tax isn't really an issue for the Cubs (the Yankees pay most of the luxury tax).  Bottom line is its only 1 year.  If we signed him for more than 1 year, I'd be pissed.  Tell me who was left in free agency that would have been so much better than Pena.

[pdga#7648]

is Pena a left handed batter?

if so, he wont surpass more than 20 HR's. That right field fence is further back, and outside. He played in a Dome in Tampa, where balls carry better. Yea it gets windy at Wrigley, but usually blowing in from Right field.

Honestly, who can hit over .300 on that team besides Aram? Nobody. DLee is gone. All the OF's blow. Especially Hoppyboy in left.
If the pitching staff is mediocre, then gonna be a tough year even playing .500 ball.

[Dan Michler]

Honestly, who can hit over .300 on that team besides Aram? Nobody.

Starlin Castro hit .300 last year at age 20.  But hey, the Cardinals have Ryan Theriot and Skip Schumaker up the middle, so I'm sure they are much better off.

[pdga#7648]

thats not why the Cardinals are better off. They are a better team, that's what makes them better off. All the way from the manager, down to the starting rotation, and position players.  That's just the facts SIR!

[CEValkyrie]

Looks like Kerry Wood is back pending a physical.

[Dan Michler]

happy to have him back!

[Dan Michler]

Milwaukee with Greinke and Gallardo at the front of their rotation now.  That is a powerful 1-2.

[pdga#7648]

This is why the Cubs struggle as much as they do.


Matt Garza was 15-10 with a 3.91 era last year with a No Hitter

But they gave up their #1 and #2 prospects.

Hak-Ju Lee is their #1 prospect.  and Archer was 15-3 last year with a 2.34 era in 28 games, and their best Minor League pitcher. Plus they gave up 3 other players.


5 for 1 does not make alot of sense. Can't wait till Dan gets on here and tells us all what a great deal this was for the Cubs 

[Dan Michler]

This is why the Cubs struggle as much as they do.


Matt Garza was 15-10 with a 3.91 era last year with a No Hitter

But they gave up their #1 and #2 prospects.

Hak-Ju Lee is their #1 prospect.  and Archer was 15-3 last year with a 2.34 era in 28 games, and their best Minor League pitcher. Plus they gave up 3 other players.


5 for 1 does not make alot of sense. Can't wait till Dan gets on here and tells us all what a great deal this was for the Cubs 

I'm not completely confident about this trade for the Cubs either.  Its the kind of trade that will have to be judged 5 years down the line before we can say Hendry did a terrible job though.  Doug's analysis is, as usual, a little extreme (and a little inaccurate, the Cubs also received 2 minor leaguers from the Rays in the deal, it was not 5 for 1).  If I try to see this from Hendry's perspective, here is the way I see it, and there is some logic to it:

First of all, the Cubs top ranked prospect is Brett Jackson, not Hak Ju Lee.  Lee is definitely a prized SS, but is still very young and very raw.  The Cubs are obviously committed long-term to Castro at SS, and Darwin Barney has the inside track on the 2B job right now.  With Castro in place, a trade was likely the eventual outcome one way or another. 

The trade is essentially Lee/Guyer/Archer for Garza.  Guyer put up big minor league numbers in the OF last season.  With Brett Jackson being much more highly touted, and with Colvin and Soriano in place for the next few years, the chances for Guyer to break into the Cubs outfield in the next season or two were very limited.  So, again, a trade was the probably outcome for Guyer as well.  Micah Hoffpauir and Roosevelt Brown have proven that putting up huge numbers in the minors doesn't mean a hell of a lot.

As for Chris Archer, the 2011 Baseball Prospect Book has him ranked as the Cubs 2nd best pitching prospect behind Trey McNutt.  He did put up great minor league numbers last year, and who knows, maybe in 5 years this will be looking like a terrible trade.  That being said, Matt Garza is a very solid proven big league starter.  For every 1 pitching prospect that ends up producing at the level of a Matt Garza, there are probably 10 top prospects that never start a single game in the bigs.

This trade has the potential to look very bad in a few years.  On the other hand, Lee and Guyer may very well end up like most of the other Cubs position player prospects over the past couple decades and Archer's chances of equaling Garza's career are very very low.  Either way, Garza give the Cubs a much better looking rotation for next season.