2011 Cubs

[CEValkyrie]

Looks like the Cardinals had some of Cubs luck today. Take away 20 wins from an 86 win team and it's not looking good. Cubs add Pujols in 2012 and it's really starting to look brutal. Maybe Ken Williams needs to shut his pie hole because Pujols stock just went up if Wainwright needs Tommy John surgery. Hopefully Carpenter goes down and the Cardinals can feel Cubs fans pain from Wood/Prior. Welcome to our world Cardinals. It's starting to crumble all around you.

[Dan Michler]

There was a lot of talk about Wainwright's elbow last year when he missed his final start because of sorness.  His violent throwing motion is similar to other pitchers who end up needing Tommy John.  Its wierd though how he pitched through the soreness to get to 20 wins last season, saying the soreness was caused by sleeping on his arm funny.  Then they shut him down for his last 2 starts and gave him an MRI that indicated inflammation in the elbow.  If it was only inflammation at the end of last season, how can it become ligament damage over the off-season?  It just seems like they could have uncovered this last October and saved themselves 6 months in the rehab process.

Either way, I'm glad this news came out before any fantasy baseball drafts.  I was going to gamble that the injury talk was premature and he would have another monster season.

Carpenter is turning 36, has already had major arm surgery, and is coming off a 235 inning season.  St.Louis will be fortunate if they can get another full season out of him.  Garcia has letdown written all over him this year.  He had elbow surgery in 2009, had a combined minor league record of 12-15 in '07-08, and then came out of nowhere last year to put up a sub 3.00 ERA.  He wore down and missed his last 2 starts last year.  Be prepared for a sophomore slump.  After that the Cards are counting on Westbrook and Lohse, who aren't bad for bottom of the rotation guys.

Without Wainwright, the Cubs rotation looks better than the Cardinals.

Cards:  Carpenter, Garcia, Westbrook, Lohse, ?
Cubs:  Dempster, Zambrano, Garza, Wells, Silva

Well and Silva are certainly a crap shoot, just like Westbrook and Lohse.  But the Cubs top 3 of Dempster (30+ starts 200+ innings sub 4.00 ERA each of the past 3 seasons), Zambrano (8-0 to finish the year last season, ended up with a 3.33 ERA after the abysmal first couple months that put him in the bullpen), Garza (30+ starts and a sub 4.00 ERA each of the past 3 seasons in the brutal AL East) is clearly better than the Cardinals top 3.

[pdga#7648]

difference is  this though. The Cardinals can rebuild the little crumbling. We all know the Cubs didn't and can't. Again Big difference Brett. And the only way the Cardinals are even close to being in the Cubs world, is they are both in the NL, and in the same division.

and with any luck, yes Carpenter goes down. That just means the seasons over earlier, which means more time to negotiate for Sir Albert.
must be something in the Chicago air that's making you guys light headed. He will not be a Cub in 2012, or any year for that matter. so keep dreaming.
didn't you watch his interview at 1st day of spring training? he said you guys were WAY off if you think he asked for 10 years or 300 million. not going to take 300 million to keep him in St. Louis. but may cost 500 million to get him to play for the Scrubs!

[Chainmeister]

Looks like the Cardinals had some of Cubs luck today. Take away 20 wins from an 86 win team and it's not looking good. Cubs add Pujols in 2012 and it's really starting to look brutal. Maybe Ken Williams needs to shut his pie hole because Pujols stock just went up if Wainwright needs Tommy John surgery. Hopefully Carpenter goes down and the Cardinals can feel Cubs fans pain from Wood/Prior. Welcome to our world Cardinals. It's starting to crumble all around you.

Yes.  A bad day for the Cards. That doesn't change anything about the competing quotes from Ken Williams and Hank Steinbrenner.  Williams sees the reality that in baseball the rich teams compete and the poor teams do not. Steinbrenner is the richest so he wants the freedom to spend himself into a coma.  He drives up the market for everybody else which is why Williams and all baseball GMs are frustrated.  The difference in baseball is that superstars such as Pujols do not mean as much to the team as they do in basketball.  Baseball is much more of a team game.  A few superstars means you will be elite in basketball. Not so in baseball.  This is why creative teams like the Twins and Cards are always competitive even if they are not at the top  salarywise.  However, its always a house of cards and that house just folded on the Cards.  They are in a position where they will have to overpay for a great player.  The Cubs are also in a bad position.  There seems to be a lot of talk about the Cubs wanting to bargain for Pujols because its win/win as they get a player the Cardinals lose.  The problem is you still put too much of your payroll into one player.  The only team that can afford to do this is the Yankees. If they overpay for a player its no problem.  They still make gobs of money and can afford to absorb a bad deal.  Soriano and Fukadome have set the Cubs back. They are one of the richer teams but they still can't absorb a bad deal the way the Yankees can. The Whitesox are no different. They cannot afford to make a  bad deal. That is why you hear Williams being honest with the press.  He pays good money but not Pujols money to build a team.  The Whitesox spent more than they normally do this past winter.  They expect to compete and think they are better than the experts think they are.  The experts still don't see the Whitesox as a top team. We will have to see who is right. However, if they don't win this year they still have young players and have contracts that are reasonable. They could dump players if things go south for them.  Nobody will take Soriano or Fukadome.  If the Whitesox tank there will be plenty of takers for Konerko or Dunn. Williams is smart.  He doesn't want Pujols even though he is as great as everybody on this board has said he is. The problem is he is too great for anybody but Hank Stenibrenner right now. A winner can be built in a better way.  A lot of teams have won the World Series other than the Cardinals i Pujols career. That will continue to happen. Who needs him at that price? For the price of Pujols Williams and a lot of other GM's will build an entire infield.

[Tom McManus]

difference is  this though. The Cardinals can rebuild the little crumbling. We all know the Cubs didn't and can't. Again Big difference Brett. And the only way the Cardinals are even close to being in the Cubs world, is they are both in the NL, and in the same division.

and with any luck, yes Carpenter goes down. That just means the seasons over earlier, which means more time to negotiate for Sir Albert.
must be something in the Chicago air that's making you guys light headed. He will not be a Cub in 2012, or any year for that matter. so keep dreaming.
didn't you watch his interview at 1st day of spring training? he said you guys were WAY off if you think he asked for 10 years or 300 million. not going to take 300 million to keep him in St. Louis. but may cost 500 million to get him to play for the Scrubs!

Doug how come you aren't a Celtics or Lakers fan? You could add some spice to the Bulls thread!!!

[Bruce Brakel]

Go *familiar laundry"!

[pdga#7648]

difference is  this though. The Cardinals can rebuild the little crumbling. We all know the Cubs didn't and can't. Again Big difference Brett. And the only way the Cardinals are even close to being in the Cubs world, is they are both in the NL, and in the same division.

and with any luck, yes Carpenter goes down. That just means the seasons over earlier, which means more time to negotiate for Sir Albert.
must be something in the Chicago air that's making you guys light headed. He will not be a Cub in 2012, or any year for that matter. so keep dreaming.
didn't you watch his interview at 1st day of spring training? he said you guys were WAY off if you think he asked for 10 years or 300 million. not going to take 300 million to keep him in St. Louis. but may cost 500 million to get him to play for the Scrubs!

Doug how come you aren't a Celtics or Lakers fan? You could add some spice to the Bulls thread!!!

Tom, I know Brett's post, was a jab at me, so I responded. Sorry.
I have been a Bulls fan since MJ's rookie year. And unlike some people, I don't switch teams.

[Tom McManus]

difference is  this though. The Cardinals can rebuild the little crumbling. We all know the Cubs didn't and can't. Again Big difference Brett. And the only way the Cardinals are even close to being in the Cubs world, is they are both in the NL, and in the same division.

and with any luck, yes Carpenter goes down. That just means the seasons over earlier, which means more time to negotiate for Sir Albert.
must be something in the Chicago air that's making you guys light headed. He will not be a Cub in 2012, or any year for that matter. so keep dreaming.
didn't you watch his interview at 1st day of spring training? he said you guys were WAY off if you think he asked for 10 years or 300 million. not going to take 300 million to keep him in St. Louis. but may cost 500 million to get him to play for the Scrubs!

Doug how come you aren't a Celtics or Lakers fan? You could add some spice to the Bulls thread!!!

Tom, I know Brett's post, was a jab at me, so I responded. Sorry.
I have been a Bulls fan since MJ's rookie year. And unlike some people, I don't switch teams.

No need to apologize. My comment wasn't a jab at you. As much as your stuff drives me nuts, it is always entertaining to read.  I appreciate your enthusiasm, as farfetched as it sometimes can be. I don't have a horse in the Cubs/Cards stuff so it is fun to read. Packers/Steelers is another story.  Everyone is entitled to their opinion. I don't know of anyone on this board who has switched teams.

[Dan Michler]

I'm sorry Dave.  I'm going to argue with you about the Sox GM.  I'm not seeing why Kenny Williams is so smart.  I agree, MLB needs a salary cap.  I'm not sure why he needs to comment that $30M for Pujols is "asinine".  The Sox have one of the higher payrolls in baseball.  Why are you saying that Ken has spent his money so much smarter than the Cubs?  Since 2002, the Sox have 2 division titles, the Cubs have 3 division titles.  Both have had free agency signings that haven't worked out.  Williams just tossed Dunn a bunch of money.  After this season, you may not be so excited about owing him $14M per year for the next 3 years.  Here is the Sox payroll.

http://www.southsidesox.com/special/White-Sox-Payroll-Info

You've got alot of money wrapped up in Peavy, Konerko, and Rios as well.  Is Peavy even going to pitch ever again?  Lets see how those deals look after the season.  Nobody was blasting the Cubs for signing Soriano when the deal was made.  It only looks terrible in hindsight.  We might very well say the same about the deals Williams gave 2 aging 1B this offseason.  There might be no takers for them either.

Hendry has been terrible.  But Ken Williams isn't necessarily any better.

[pdga#7648]

He did win a ring though! Huge difference. division titles mean nothing when playing in a piss poor division. remember?

[CEValkyrie]

difference is  this though. The Cardinals can rebuild the little crumbling. We all know the Cubs didn't and can't. Again Big difference Brett. And the only way the Cardinals are even close to being in the Cubs world, is they are both in the NL, and in the same division.

  I like your positive outlook about the future. If you lose Pujols, Carpenter, and Wainwright you can enjoy the misery for a few years because no organiztion can overcome those losses of production (well, maybe the current Phillies roster). I'm not sure the Cardinals can overcome this injury if Wainwright needs TJ surgery. It could be wait until next year for the Cards really early this year.

[pdga#7648]

Carpenter is about done anyway. we have these things called prospects, 1 being Shelby Miller. espn said Wainwright was an elite pitcher. a pitcher of his magnitude usually comes back stronger. 12-15 months is the rehab time, if the surgery is needed. a stronger wainwright? are you kidding me? we can have 1 or 2 dismal years, we still have Pujols Brett.  I know your hopeful, but be more realistic please.and earlier in here or somewhere, you questioned wether or not AP believed the Cardinals could win a championship? he has played in 2 and won 1 in the last 7 years in St. Louis. do you really think he would sign as a Cub, where he knows they haven't even had a sniff of a world series since the 40's?    get real
and remember, Dave Duncan is 1 of the best coaches, at making mediocre pitchers, Stars. he knows he has a problem, and he can make Ian Snell a .500 pitcher, if Snell still has the stuff he threw in Pittsburgh. of course his lifetime average is crap (DAN) but like I said, Duncan can do it.
in all honesty, this season needs to hurry up and be over for St. Louis, the sooner the better. Signing AP is all that matters.

St. Louis still finishes ahead of the Cubs this year, with Wainwright gone, so wait until next year for both 

[Dan Michler]

Lose Wainwright, but add Theriot!!!  Look out National League!

[pdga#7648]

you forgot, they lost Punto as well for 8-12 weeks. yep, they shouldn't even have a 2011 season, it's over

[Dan Michler]

Carpenter is about done anyway. we have these things called prospects, 1 being Shelby Miller.

The Cardinals have a grand total of 1 guy in MLB.com's top 50 prospects.

espn said Wainwright was an elite pitcher. a pitcher of his magnitude usually comes back stronger. 12-15 months is the rehab time, if the surgery is needed. a stronger wainwright? are you kidding me?

You are arguing that Tommy John surgery is actually a positive?  Put that on the all-time highlight reel of Doug Payne posts!

Hell, Garza isn't hurt, but the Cubs should make him get Tommy John just to improve his pitching.

[pdga#7648]

again, you must read the entire post, not just the funny part.

Garza is not Elite.

and you dont need a great pitcher(top 50) to win in St. Louis

[pdga#7648]

and no, a surgery is never positive, but knowing it can be done, and knowing he is a work horse. he will be fine. Carpenter sucked as a Blue Jay, had TJ surgery, became a Cardinal, with Duncan, and what do ya know.


sorry, had to edit this. Carpenter just had 2 elbow surgery's and a shoulder as a Blue Jay. His TJ came in 2007 as a Cardinal, but he came back okay. still pitching strong anyway

[Dan Michler]

Its time for me to fearlessly post my prediction for the 2011 season....................and for the 30th consecutive season, I am predicting a Cubs World Series victory.

Here is why this will be the year:

1.  No expectations this year.  I think the team felt a lot of pressure the past few seasons after getting into the post-season in '07 and '08 and getting swept out of the 1st round both times.  The team is going to play much looser this year.

2.  Mike Quade.  Very energetic manager who all the players love.  He has waited his whole life for this opportunity and is going to put everything he has into it.  Team chemistry has not been good for a long time, and I think Quade is going to change that (along with the lack of a Milton Bradley type character).

3.  Aramis Ramirez.  Reports are Aramis has come into camp in much better shape than usual.  He's healthy.  He's only 32.  He is in a contract year.  After the All-Star break last year he slugged .526 with 15 HR and 51 RBI.  I'm a little worried that his walk total dipped last year while his K rate went up, but if he can get his plate discipline back in order, there is no reason he won't put up the numbers we are used to seeing.  I think he's back to a .290 25 100 guy this year.

4.  Soto.  He returned to form last year after suffering the sophomore slump in '09.  His walk ratio skyrocketed showing he is figuring things out.  He missed some time with a shoulder injury, but posted very solid numbers.  His shoulder is back to full health and I look for a progression from him this year.  I'm thinking he surpasses his rookie numbers and goes .290 25 90, and ends up being a staple in the heart of our order.

5.  Starting Pitching.  I think Dempster will put up another steady consistent season.  I think Zambrano is mentally refreshed and probably happy to be under a new manager.  Big Z finished last year 8-0 and I think this year could end up being his best.  I'm not familiar with Garza, but from looking at his numbers he seems very steady and has good command.  That will serve him well in the National League.  I don't think we can match the Greinke/Gallardo 1-2 punch, but this staff is deeper, and we have a much better pen than the Brewers.

6.  Bullpen.  Marmol is the best closer in the NL.  In his 1st full season as closer, he went 38/43, a 2.55 ERA and he struck out freakin' 138 batters in 78 innings!  That is just uncalled for.  It doesn't stop at Marmol.  Marshall K'd 90 in 74 innings and put up a 2.65.  Wood signed for next-to-nothing and is here solely because he loves playing in Chicago and realizes he underperformed on the last contract we gave him.  He's still just 33.  After the all-star break last season he posted a 0.69 ERA in 26 innings, holding batters to a .161 BA.  He has accepted his role in middle relief and will thrive with the Cubs this season.

7. Youth.  Things got stale after a while with Lee/Aram/Soriano as the heart of our team.  Soto/Colvin/Castro are going to give this team the extra boost to push us over the top.

We've got a good mix on this team.  They like each other.  There is less pressure.  This is the year.  2011.  103 years was all it took to get it done.  If not, well I can always dream in March...

Rest of the division:
2. Cardinals
3. Brewers
4. Astros
5. Reds - Dusty is such a D-Bag.  I can't wait to see him screw this team up.
6. Pirates

[pdga#7648]

Its time for me to fearlessly post my prediction for the 2011 season....................and for the 30th consecutive season, I am predicting a Cubs World Series victory.

man, if anything you have to admire this guys enthusiasm and confidence in his ball club. You always know where Dan's heart is at, good team or not. but from one friend to the other, I think, no I'm positive, I owe you this one.. I do believe you can put this on the all-time highlight reel of Dan Michler posts!

your points...
1. Disagree (the fans at Wrigley wont let any team there be loose)
2. agree (saw him fielding grounders the other day and throwing like he was a player)
3. Agree (he has to carry this offense)
4. & 5. disagree(show me something early, and I might change on #5)
6. Totally agree(with everything said about Marmol, Wood on the other hand, again show me)
7. disagree(why are Cub young guys better than the Cardinals Rasmus, Freese, Garcia)


Brewers
Cardinals(even with AW out, still predicted to win 84 games, but chance at playoffs dropped from 42% to 27%)
Reds
Cubs
Astros
Pirates( I would go coach this team for $100,000 and Steelers season tickets) bet I could finish last place like they always do.


so add 1 more, make it 104 

[CEValkyrie]

We are going to suck this year but at least we have some fighting sons of bitches. Maybe we can hire Chuck Liddell to come in and teach some UFC shit so we can beat on some other teams.