2011 Cubs

[Dan Michler]

Being a fan and putting an emotional investment into a pro sports team makes no logical sense, but neither does most other forms of entertainment when you break it down into the simplest of terms.  For whatever reason, some of us just find it fun to follow your team and go through the ups and downs.

[pdga#7648]

and I didnt agree with Bruce at all about his quote. I was replying to this part....

"Loyalty to any one sports team is pretty hard to justify."

I was showing my loyalty to 1 team no matter who is on it.  The clothes bit by Jerry is about as funny as his stand up gigs, NOT VERY. 

[Chainmeister]

and I didnt agree with Bruce at all about his quote. I was replying to this part....

"Loyalty to any one sports team is pretty hard to justify."

I was showing my loyalty to 1 team no matter who is on it.  The clothes bit by Jerry is about as funny as his stand up gigs, NOT VERY. 

Its a head/heart thing.  Loyalty...as riffed on by Jerry is hard to justify. We justify with our heads. We root with our hearts.  Is it logical to continue to root for [insert your team here] regardless of the decisions their management makes, the players actions on and off the field, the crappy food they serve at the ballpark, the increasing ticket prices? Heck no.  However, we love our teams whether they growl, eat cheese or perch on a bat.  I remember working for a guy who mistakenly bet with his heart and would lose money on the Cubs all the time. Betting is logical.  We know our team sucks and we make money when we are clear headed enough to bet against them or at least abstain.  Rooting?  We love our teams with our heart and soul. Passion is what makes teams successful and makes a city feel better and bigger on certain Monday mornings. Passion is what drives message board discussion.  Passion makes both Michler and Airspuds feel like little kids every Spring training because, "next year is here." and hope is in the air.  Loyalty, as Jerry said, is a little like marriage.  You may have been rooting for your team for your entire life.  You may have been a season ticket holder or have been married for 27 years and still see the beautiful girl in the wedding pictures regardless of what ESPN says in its power rankings.

[Dan Michler]

You may have been a season ticket holder or have been married for 27 years and still see the beautiful girl in the wedding pictures regardless of what ESPN says in its power rankings.

Ha, I enjoyed this analogy Dave.  I think you are implying that when I've been married for 27 years, the "ESPN Power Rankings" will not be so kind to my wife...I hope for your sake that your wife never stumbles onto this forum.

So what do the Sox fans on here want to happen this offseason?  Ozzie gone, Kenny gone, both gone, or nobody gone?  I keep hearing on the sports talk shows that somebody will be gone.  It sounds like Ozzie might have a job lined up with the Marlins if the Sox let him go, which makes perfect sense as they:  
A:  have no manager for next season  
B:  have a large Hispanic fan base they are trying to attract
C:  Ozzie was a bench coach for them before coming to the Sox
D:  they are opening a new ballpark next year and need to make a splash

The Cubs finally jacked Hendry.  Reinsdorf has got to be feeling pressure to do the same to Kenny.  I mean, the guy has employed a 'go for broke' philosphy the last few years and he's pretty much gone broke.  He's wasted millions of Jerry's money on guys like Manny Ramirez, Alex Rios, Adam Dunn, etc...and he also sent Daniel Hudson packing to Arizona where he immediately became one of the best young pitchers in baseball.  He has quickly gotten the Sox into a such a bad position that it rivals what Hendry accomplished.  The difference is the Cubs still sold 90% of their seats this year where the Sox attendance has now dipped down around 60% of capacity because of the poor play.  This is costing Reinsdorf in more ways than one.  I think Kenny Williams has to be gone.

[Chainmeister]

Thanks Dan.  I have been married 27 years and as far as I am concerned its still the same beautiful girl in the wedding pictures.  I have no problem with her seeing this.  The reality is we are both a little older and...well you get it.

You posed the big Sox fan question.  I have always been a big fan of both Ozzie and Kenny even though I really ought to only like one of them. Either way, I hate to say its time for both to go.  I think both have done many great things for the Sox. The reality is this was an underperforming team that can equally be attributed to having the wrong guys and not getting those guys to play their best.  I would keep a core of young players including good talent up the middle which means Flowers at catcher, Beckham at 2b, Ramierz at SS and De Aza in Center. I would keep Vicceado (I know I butchered his name but am not bothering to look it up)  and Sale.  Beyond that everybody else including Konerrko as at risk  They need to start over. I am not saying dump everybody but I am saying no sacred cows.  I will miss Ozzie but its time to try something new.  They have some salaries that will hold them back as do the Cubs. However, there is enough of a foundation that they can be exciting (meaning win about the same number of games with lesser expectations and a younger lineup) for a year or two and then have a chance to be competitive at the top.

[Dan Michler]

I'm surprised you want to keep Beckham.  The guy very solid in the field which is commendable, but hasn't he proven that he just flatout can't hit?  I mean, he's slugging .330, he strikes out a ton, he doesn't have speed, he's a total offensive liability.  It doesn't get much worst offensively among AL 2B.  That being said I think I'd be willing to swap Barney for Beckham straight up.  He came crashing back to earth after his hot start this year.  He's not a highly touted prospect, he has no power, his glove has been a liability at 2B, I'm willing to give up on him.

[Jon Brakel]

I think Kenny will be gone but Ozzie will be back. Adam Dunn? Can you really blame that on anyone other than Adam Dunn? Has the worst batting slump of his life for the entire year?

[Dan Michler]

I think Kenny will be gone but Ozzie will be back. Adam Dunn? Can you really blame that on anyone other than Adam Dunn? Has the worst batting slump of his life for the entire year?

I don't think there were alot of teams clamoring for Adam Dunn last offseason.  Ken Williams clearly valued him much higher than other teams, and he was wrong.  I totally agree Adam Dunn should obviously be held responsible for his own performance, and that nobody would have predicted the level of futility that Dunn experienced in 2011.

[pdga#7648]

The translation: The magic number is 10 until the Cardinals are eliminated with 14 games to play, and 4 of those are against the Phillies.  

good thing, those Phillies are easy to beat 3 of 4.

and I think the wildcard is only 2.5 games away!! Braves lost again. And they play Philly 3 more games.  To where the Cards have Mets, Cubs, and worst team in baseball Houston.

[stpitner]

Watch out for San Francisco right behind you now after winning 8 straight, only 3.5 out of the wild card.

[Dan Michler]

2011 regular season just about in the books.  Gotta love Philly's chances to win the whole thing.  Nobody else can come close to matching Halladay/Lee/Hamels for a playoff rotation, and we all know the playoffs is all about pitching.  The Yankees should come out of the AL with Sabathia and Ivan Nova both pitching really well right now and they obviously have a ridiculous offense.  Nobody is going to pick Boston with their pitching in total shambles.  It reminds me of the '04 Cardinals and the '05 White Sox who both limped into the playoffs, but ended up winning it all.  Anything can happen in the playoffs.  I'm going to be rooting hard for Milwaukee.  I visit their stadium at least twice a year and I'd like to see them win it all.

AL MVP had better be Jose Bautista.  #1 in slugging% and #1 in on base%.  By far the best offensive player in baseball this year.
NL MVP is a tough call this year.  You've got Ryan Braun (.331 31 104 31SB) and Matt Kemp (.321 34  113 40SB) who put up similar numbers and are both incredibly poor fielding outfielders.  Between those two I'd take Kemp as he put up those numbers in a pitcher friendly park, but I'm sure Braun would win as the voters always choose the guy who happens to be on a winning team (stupid).  I think the best all round player in the NL this year was Tulowitzki (.303 30 105) who is one of the best fielders in the game at the toughest defensive position.  I think Braun wins the award, but I'd vote for Tulowitzki if I had a vote.

AL Cy Young...Verlander in a landslide.  Best pitcher in baseball this year.  Probably the best season anybody has put up since Pedro's 1999 and 2000 seasons.
NL Cy Young...Another tough call.  The candidates:

Kershaw 20-5 2.27 ERA 0.99WHIP  242  K's
Cliff Lee 16-8  2.38  1.03  232 K's
Halladay  18-6  2.41  1.05  217 K's
Ian Kennedy 20-4  2.88 1.08  194 K's

I think you can immediately eliminate Kennedy.  He doesn't have the reputation or the overwhelming stuff that the other 3 have.  20-4 is impressive, but the fact that he trails statistically in the other categories will definitely leave him short.  Between Halladay and Lee its tough to choose.  Halladay completed 8 games to Lee's 6, but Lee had an unreal 6 shutouts! (Halladay 1).  At the end of the day, the vote will get split between these 2 Phillies similar to what happened with Carpenter/Wainwright in the past.  This will leave Kershaw as the deserving winner.  He's the most overpowering pitcher in the NL, although he is helped by Dodger Stadium.

[Dan Michler]

What is going to happen this offseason?

C.J. Wilson is the best free agent pitching prospect out there (assuming Sabathia is staying in NY).  He just threw up his best season yet at age 30 with a 2.97 ERA 16-7 in one of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball down in Texas.  Before 2010 he was a reliever so he doesn't have a ton of innings on his arm.  Obviously it'd be a huge score for any team to land him.

Heath Bell and Papelbon will be free agent closers.

Then you have Jose Reyes, Albert Pujols, and Prince Fielder.  All ended up with monster seasons, even though for Pujols it was considered sub-standard (he'll still finish top 10 MVP).

Aramis Ramirez is also likely to be a free agent (he basically stated today he would decline if the Cubs did pick up his 2012 option), and by far the best 3B available.  A ton of teams need help at 3B, so I'm guessing Aramis is going to get overpaid by somebody other than the Cubs.

Should be a very interesting offseason.

[Tom McManus]

2011 regular season just about in the books.  Gotta love Philly's chances to win the whole thing.  Nobody else can come close to matching Halladay/Lee/Hamels for a playoff rotation, and we all know the playoffs is all about pitching.  The Yankees should come out of the AL with Sabathia and Ivan Nova both pitching really well right now and they obviously have a ridiculous offense.  Nobody is going to pick Boston with their pitching in total shambles.  It reminds me of the '04 Cardinals and the '05 White Sox who both limped into the playoffs, but ended up winning it all.  Anything can happen in the playoffs.  I'm going to be rooting hard for Milwaukee.  I visit their stadium at least twice a year and I'd like to see them win it all.

AL MVP had better be Jose Bautista.  #1 in slugging% and #1 in on base%.  By far the best offensive player in baseball this year.
NL MVP is a tough call this year.  You've got Ryan Braun (.331 31 104 31SB) and Matt Kemp (.321 34  113 40SB) who put up similar numbers and are both incredibly poor fielding outfielders.  Between those two I'd take Kemp as he put up those numbers in a pitcher friendly park, but I'm sure Braun would win as the voters always choose the guy who happens to be on a winning team (stupid).  I think the best all round player in the NL this year was Tulowitzki (.303 30 105) who is one of the best fielders in the game at the toughest defensive position.  I think Braun wins the award, but I'd vote for Tulowitzki if I had a vote.

AL Cy Young...Verlander in a landslide.  Best pitcher in baseball this year.  Probably the best season anybody has put up since Pedro's 1999 and 2000 seasons.
NL Cy Young...Another tough call.  The candidates:

Kershaw 20-5 2.27 ERA 0.99WHIP  242  K's
Cliff Lee 16-8  2.38  1.03  232 K's
Halladay  18-6  2.41  1.05  217 K's
Ian Kennedy 20-4  2.88 1.08  194 K's

I think you can immediately eliminate Kennedy.  He doesn't have the reputation or the overwhelming stuff that the other 3 have.  20-4 is impressive, but the fact that he trails statistically in the other categories will definitely leave him short.  Between Halladay and Lee its tough to choose.  Halladay completed 8 games to Lee's 6, but Lee had an unreal 6 shutouts! (Halladay 1).  At the end of the day, the vote will get split between these 2 Phillies similar to what happened with Carpenter/Wainwright in the past.  This will leave Kershaw as the deserving winner.  He's the most overpowering pitcher in the NL, although he is helped by Dodger Stadium.

Why not Verlander for the MVP?

[pdga#7648]

I agree with Tom.  Verlander  should win the MVP. how long has it been since a American League pitcher won 24 games in a single season?  Randy Johnson did it in 2002, but I think he was in Arizona?



Player W-L ERA GS CG SHO IP H BB SO WHIP
Clemens '86 24-4 2.48 33 10 1 254 179 67 238 0.97
Verlander '11 24-5 2.29 33 4 2 244 166 56 244 0.91


Clemens won the MVP in 86.  Verlander's numbers are just as good if not better in most stats.



Justin Verlander beat the A's in Oakland on Sunday to improve his record to 24-5, making him the first Tigers pitcher to win 24 games in a season since Mickey Lolich won 25 in 1971, and the majors' first 24-game winner since Randy Johnson in 2002. Verlander is the first pitcher in Tigers history to win 12 consecutive starts and the first in the big leagues since Johan Santana in 2004. Verlander is just the seventh American League pitcher since World War II to record 24 wins and 240 strikeouts in a season and the first since Ron Guidry in 1978. He threw a no-hitter May 7 at Toronto. He's a cinch for the AL Cy Young Award. He should also be the AL MVP

[pdga#7648]

Your right Doug, stranger things have definitely happened...but not very often.  ESPN calculates the %chance of each team making the playoffs.  Right now the Cards are at 4.5%.  Good luck with that.

Hey Dan?  what's that % for the Cardinals now?  just wondering?

[Dan Michler]

I'm of the opinion that the Cy Young is for pitchers and the MVP is for everyday players, otherwise you could certainly make a case for Verlander as MVP.

Doug, you are now at 34.6%.

[Dan Michler]

The Cardinals have 1 with the Mets tonight, then 3 games with the Cubs and 3 with the Astros.
Braves have 3 with the Nats and 3 with the Phils. 

The Phillies will be setting up their rotation for the playoffs and will not be playing any of the regulars that last game.  I'd say the schedules are pretty even, we'll see what happens.  The Cubs are definitely going to try their best to knock out the Cards this weekend.  I'd love to see it happen.

[stpitner]

I think the Cubs will be playing the series against the Cardinals as if it was their own playoffs - so yeah, it's going to be a good series to watch!

Poor Pirates fans - they started out so well, now the Cubs and Pirates are tied for the same record.  I'd like to at least see the Cubs get one more to get at least 70 wins.  It's bad enough to finish under .500 but even worse when you can't even get to 70.  And then there's Houston with 102 losses already... for them it's almost like why do I even show up?  I'll take millions of dollars to suck at my profession, sure.

[pdga#7648]

Hey Doug, your team has the same October plans as the Cubs.  Enjoy!  Way to waste a fantastic season by Lance Berkman.  Unlikely he'll be resigned by the Cardinals next year since they'll have to commit most of their payroll to signing Pujols.

LOL.  Berkman is resigned thru 2012.  wrong again!   

[pdga#7648]

from 4.5% to 34.6% in 7 days.  pretty good chances.

Braves will face Strasburgh tomorrow, and I disagree with the Philly part. After losing 3 of 4 to the Cardinals, and now 3 straight to Washington, Manuel will be playing to get back on track. And that means playing his starters.